Bitcoin May Be Stabilizing in the Worst Possible Macro Window
This week’s headlines ran with a line from K33’s March 24 report: Bitcoin may have found a market bottom and is now attractively priced for long-term investors. Here’s what K33 actually wrote.
The backdrop
The report is called “Oil spill,” which sets the tone immediately. Middle East conflict, oil volatility, a hawkish Fed, equities falling. BTC retraced from around $75k to lows near $67k, then partially recovered on signals of US-Iran talks, closing the week down 6%. Fear and Greed fell to 11, spot volumes fell 17% week-on-week to $3.2bn — the lowest since February.
That context matters, because the interesting question is why K33 are talking about a bottoming structure at all given the macro. The answer is in what’s happening underneath the price.
Why K33 thinks the market structure is improving
The central argument rests on two parallel dynamics.
ETF investors. BTC ETF flows turned mildly positive since late February, after a heavy distribution phase running from October through February. K33’s point is straightforward: when a market is falling but many ETF holders are still in profit, profit-taking reinforces the selloff. As prices fall further, that incentive weakens, because fewer people are sitting on meaningful gains. ETF data showed a brief panic spike in outflows when BTC dropped below the average cost basis, but demand stabilized shortly after. Total global BTC ETP holdings recovered above 1.5 million BTC.
Long-term holders. Supply aged 6 months or more is rising again, which sharply contrasts with Q4 2025, when that metric was falling fast as experienced holders distributed. With BTC trading well below $100k, most of them have little reason to sell, and when that cohort goes quiet, the downtrend loses its engine.
Relative strength makes the thesis plausible
From the February 27 close through March 24, BTC is up 8.53%. Over the same period: Nasdaq -2.28%, S&P 500 -3.61%, gold -16.60%.
K33 are careful to note that this does not reflect capital rotating into bitcoin. BTC entered the escalation period after falling roughly 50% from its October peak, with institutional allocations already reduced and sentiment near the floor. When the bulk of the downside has already been absorbed, even neutral flows stop the bleeding. BTC held up relative to other assets largely because there was limited room left to de-risk further.
Derivatives
The derivatives picture is more cautious:
- Perp funding rates: 7-day annualized average at -1.38%, 30-day average at -0.89%, the weakest 30-day reading since December 2022
- Perp open interest: below 260,000 BTC, near yearly lows, as traders stay reluctant to add directional exposure
- Options skew: at 1-month highs, with traders actively buying downside protection
- CME: open interest flat, no directional positioning, institutional investors staying passive
K33 put it plainly: “prolonged and directionless consolidation phase.” Geopolitical uncertainty is keeping new inflows limited, and the $60,000-$75,000 range may persist for longer than feels comfortable.
Higher lows in March
Within that range, March has started to form a higher-lows structure. BTC tested several important levels: the 2021 ATH at $69k, the March 2024 ATH at $73,836, and the April 2025 low at $74,420. Each rejection was followed by a higher low. K33 read this as a sign of underlying demand alongside subdued selling pressure.
Our take
The LTH supply data, ETF flow data, and relative performance all point in the same direction: the main distribution wave is most likely behind us. At $70k, with the correction BTC has gone through since October, a medium to long-term entry looks reasonable based on the underlying setup.
Where we’d add a condition: the thesis depends on geopolitical uncertainty staying roughly contained. If oil volatility escalates further and forces another round of broad de-risking, the floor that K33 are describing gets tested again. The higher lows structure in March is real, but it’s young. And K33 themselves say the range may persist — which is a more useful framing than calling a bottom outright, because it sets accurate expectations about what comes next.
Where are you sitting on this — accumulating in the range, or waiting for something clearer from the macro side first?
